I’m a season ticket holder, if that matters to any of you, and here’s a fun fact to kick things off: I paid nearly £35 per goal scored at Selhurst last year.
With that said, here’s the information I think most of you are looking for and maybe a little bit of information you weren’t aware you needed.
FIRST SIX FIXTURES:
| Opp. | Diff |
|---|---|
| EVE (H) | 2* |
| SHU (A) | 2 |
| MUN (A) | 4 |
| AVL (H) | 2 |
| TOT (A) | 4 |
| WOL (H) | 3 |
*I personally think EVE should be a 3 difficulty.
Palace’s opening fixtures look pretty run of the mill: intermediate opening fixture, easy, hard, easy, hard, intermediate. Some of you might be tempted by those Sheffield United and Villa fixtures. They do look pretty juicy, but here’s a couple of facts I want you all to know and bear in mind:
Palace are notoriously slow starters. We only really seem to come alive after a disastrous start to a campaign. Stats don’t lie. Our first 1/3 of the season for the last three years:
| Season | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 16th |
| 2017-18 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 24 | 8 | 20th |
| 2016-17 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 26 | 11 | 17th |
We had fairly decent pre-seasons the last three years before the slow start to our PL campaign.
This season? We’ve won two friendlies (one on pens), drawn one, and lost five – including our last, a 4-0 smashing from Hertha Berlin at Selhurst two days ago. Make of that what you will!
Palace usually play better away from home. We didn’t score at home for the first five games at Selhurst Park last season – our first goals in front of the home crowd went in on 28 October against Arsenal. We had the 3rd worst home record last season and scored almost 1/4 of our home goals in the final game of the season when we beat Bournemouth 5-3.
Here’s our home form for the last three seasons compared to how we did away:
| 2018-19 | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 23 | 20 | 18th |
| Away | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 6th |
| 2017-18 | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 23 | 20 | 18th |
| Away | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 28 | 18 | 8th |
| 2016-17 | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 19 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 25 | 20 | 18th |
| Away | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 38 | 21 | 8th |
CONCLUSION: Even if we had a strong, full-strength team, I’d be hesitant to bring in a Palace asset for the first five or six games as the only games we stand a chance of getting points are GW2 – SHU (A) and GW4 – AVL (H) – before factoring in how we usually perform earlier in the season. Then, knowing what we’re like at home, the only one I’m semi-confident about is SHU away in GW2.
FORMATION
PLAYERS
This won’t take long: unless you’re thinking of a Palace player whose name begins with Zaha or Milo or (maybe) van, don’t bother.
But, considering so many of you have lost your damn minds thinking of Martin Kelly, I guess I’d better go into a bit more detail. Not the xGD*xGA-xGC = £0.5 PPM kind of detail, just how much our players cost, how shit they are, and why you should avoid them kind of detail.
GOALKEEPERS
| Player | Price | Nailed | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guaita | 5.0 | Nailed | 5/10 |
| Hennessey | 4.5 | Not Nailed | 3/10 |
Guaita should be #1. He’s significantly better than Hennessey in almost every way and is much less prone to making an error or throwing an accidental Nazi salute. I would expect Guaita to be in goal unless injured. Should he be in your team? Not if you can avoid it.
Palace will ship goals in at least four of their first six games, possibly even five. Our defense is stretched and leaky and Palace will concede. Guaita will get some points for over three saves, but don’t expect many clean sheets. He’s one of the best defensive options from Palace, but he’s 0.5 more expensive than other similar goalkeepers who will likely earn more points.
Maybe: Guaita
No: Hennessey
DEFENDERS
As above, but if you mentalists insist on Martin Kelly, who am I to argue?
| Player | Price | Nailed | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cahill | – | Not Nailed | 2/10 |
| Dann | 4.5 | Not Nailed | 2/10 |
| Kelly | 4.0 | Semi Nailed | 3/10 |
| Tomkins | 5.0 | Nailed | 5/10 |
| Sakho | 5.0 | Nailed | 4/10 |
| van Aanholt | 5.5 | Nailed | 6/10 |
| Ward | 4.5 | Semi Nailed | 2/10 |
Listen, I get why you might fancy Kelly. He’s cheap as chips and, at the moment, it’s looking like he might get a game or two. And this is Palace, we kept the sixth most clean sheets last year: five more than West Ham, Brighton, United, Watford, and Southampton; four more than Burnley, Wolves, Leicester and Arsenal. Our defense, at times, was impenetrable. So I get it: 6th most clean sheets LY + 4.0 defender + 90% likelihood of him playing = Ding! Ding! Ding! IN. THE. TEAM.
Right?
No.
Wrong.
Firstly, as soon as Tomkins returns (though we don’t know exactly when, it should be soon) Kelly is back vying with Ward for the RB spot vacated by AWB. However, Hodgson doesn’t like Kelly playing at right back – he doesn’t even consider Kelly a right back – so really it’s no contest. Secondly… AWB. We don’t have him anymore. I don’t think people realise how much of an impact AWB had last year. We will be nowhere near as strong at the back without him. His absence automatically docks a point or two off every other Palace defender and we’ll keep at least 4 or 5 fewer clean sheets across the season. The Palace backline without AWB is like the Titanic without Leo. Thirdly, Kelly has a high ownership. Once Tomkins comes back or Palace don’t keep a clean sheet in either of our first two games – you better jump ship before his ownership plummets.
Overall, spend 0.5 extra and get someone better.
For our other defenders: don’t bother with Dann or Ward. Nor Sakho – he’s the same price as Tomkins but is utterly useless in the box up the other end of the pitch. They’ll share clean sheets but Tomkins is more likely to score. (The only difference between the two.)
Personally I feel our best defensive asset in van Aanholt. He can’t defend for love nor money, but he’s good going forward and has a fantastic rapport with Zaha. He bombs into the opposition box frequently and gets the occasional goal and assist here and there. He’ll be our highest scoring defender again this year.
Cahill Update: I would not expect Cahill to start in GW1-3. He’s only just joined the team and will have spent just a week with them prior to GW1, so I’m pessimistic about the prospect he ousts Kelly for the Everton game. He’s also 33 and probably out of shape given he didn’t have a pre-season, so it’ll take a while to get match fit. By that time I’d hope Tomkins would be back, at which point Cahill becomes third choice.
Yes: van Aanholt
Maybe: Tomkins, Kelly
No: Cahill, Dann, Sakho, Ward
MIDFIELDERS
| Player | Price | Nailed | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| McArthur | 5.5 | Semi-Nailed | 4/10 |
| Kouyate | 5.0 | Semi-Nailed | 2/10 |
| Meyer | 5.5 | Semi-Nailed | 3/10 |
| Milivojevic | 7.0 | Nailed | 7/10 |
| Schlupp | 5.5 | Semi-Nailed | 5/10 |
| Townsend | 6.0 | Nailed | 6/10 |
| Zaha | 7.0 | Nailed | 7/10 |
Mili and Zaha (from GW2 on) are nailed and, in all honestly, there’s not much that sets them apart.
Most of Palace’s goals come from penalties and free-kicks (Mili has been our top scorer for the last two seasons) and most of those penalties will come from fouls on Zaha (who has been our second highest top scorer for the last two seasons. Contrary to Watford fans would like you to believe, Zaha doesn’t dive nearly as much as they say and I’d expect us to get a few more penalties this year with VAR. Only downsides to them both is that every other game Mili will get booked for an awful tackle and Zaha will get booked for moaning.
The only issue with Zaha is that he’s just back into training and missed pre-season thanks to AFCON. He’s also not in the best headspace, so I’d expect him to miss the first and, possibly, second gameweek.
Townsend is nailed but will simply score and assist fewer goals than the other two. Unfortunately absolute bangers earn just as many points as a one-yard tap-in.
McArthur is a dark horse. He’s relatively cheap at 5.5 and usually bags a few goals and assists each season. I rate him as decent bench fodder. Schlupp also, but this year he’s finally counted as a midfielder rather than a defender. Both get a few goals, but of the two I prefer McArthur, because I love Jimmy Mac – he’s our very own Scottish Iniesta.
Meyer could be one to watch as he’s looked up for it in pre-season, but he was unconvincing last year and didn’t get any solid, consistent gametime. Keep an eye on him this year as he could take over from McArthur. I wouldn’t bother with Kouyate, even though he’ll be heavily rotated with McArthur, Meyer and Schlupp.
Yes: Milivojevic, Zaha
Maybe: McArthur, Schlupp, Townsend
No: Kouyate, Meyer
FORWARDS
Crickets…
…
Kelly has more chance of banging them in.
…
There’s nothing to see here. Except… keep an eye on Wickham. He was out most of last year but I could see him getting some game time if Benteke doesn’t sort his shit out. Would be a steal at 4.5 if he starts banging them in and starting consistently.
CONCLUSION:
1. Steer clear of Palace goalkeepers and defenders unless it’s van Aanholt, but even then I would suggest waiting till GW10 or later. Exercise EXTREME caution if starting your campaign with Martin “You’ll Wonder What You Were Thinking” Kelly.
2. Toss a coin and pick Zaha (from GW2) or Milivojevic. Doesn’t matter which.
3. Avoid anyone up front. If Wickham starts a few games after the inevitable Benteke drought, pick him up.
TLDR:
Yes: van Aanholt*, Milivojevic, Zaha
Maybe: Guaita, Kelly, Tomkins, McArthur, Schlupp, Townsend, Wickham
No: Hennessey, Cahill, Dann, Ward, Meyer, Kouyate, Benteke, Ayew
*If you insist on a Palace defender
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