This season it’s Pukki (6.5) of Norwich and Sharp (6.0) of Sheffield United who FPL managers might turn to looking for a cheap differential striker who can score lots.
The question is how well do these players actually adapt to Premier League football where the quality of the opposition is much higher and their teams will invariably score fewer goals.
To analyse this I’ve looked at the top scorers from the previous Championship season for newly promoted sides and seen how they’ve done in their first season after promotion
| Team | Player | Championship Goals (Assists) | PLGoals (Assists) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | Pukki | 29 (9) | ? |
| Sheffield United | Sharp | 23 (4) | ? |
| Wolves | Jota | 17 (6) | 9 (5) |
| Fulham | Sessegnon | 15 (6) | 2 (6) |
| Fulham | Mitrovic * | 12 (1) | 11 (3) |
| Brighton | Murray | 23 (6) | 12 (0) |
| Newcastle | Gayle | 23 (2) | 6 (3) |
| Huddersfield | Kachunga | 12 (4) | 1 (1) |
| Burnley | Gray | 25 (10) | 9 (3) |
| Hull | Hernandez | 20 (2) | 4 (3) |
| Watford | Deeney | 21 (10) | 8 (6) |
| Watford | Ighalo | 20 (4) | 16 (5) |
| Bournmouth | Wilson | 20 (13) | 5 (0) ** |
| Norwich | Jerome | 18 (7) | 3 (2) |
*Only came in in January
**Missed most of the season through injury
What to conclude from this? Well obviously player score less in the PL than the Championship. That seems like a fairly redundant thing to say but every season but I think it’s worth saying anyway. The next thing I’d say is although some players do score pretty well, it’s very hit and miss. Maybe you’ll get lucky and someone will play like Ighalo (at least until he ran out of form), or maybe they’ll do a Gayle/Hernandez/Jerome. It’s very difficult to call.
The most sensible conclusion is probably that the best you can realistically hope (and therefore plan) for for players like Sharp and Pukki is a moderate return of 8-10 goals (maybe creeping over if you’re lucky) with a small number of assists but also a not insignificant risk of very low returns. That puts them pretty much in the middle of the pack for strikers at that price range.
So should you get them in? Well I certainly wouldn’t say they’re a must-have based on this, but they could potentially be an interesting differential. That said, getting differentials at the start of the season seems a bit pointless so I’d very much suggest going for a tried and tested option, rather than a punt on a newly promoted striker.
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