As I accept the invite and google how to get to Tullow Co. Carlow, I remind myself that at the grand old age of 36, I haven’t kick a ball for about four years and I am now carrying the most weight I have ever had the honour to behold (and that’s including the time I lugged a backpack across Punchestown Racecourse for the Oxegen Festival in 2008).

The match kicks off at 9:00pm and as the summer sun starts to depart over the Wicklow Mountains, communication between players starts to divert from keeping shape, to how each other’s fantasy football team is starting to shape up. It feels like I have gone back 10 years (ok 20 years), as this is what the summertime use to be all about. Playing football till ALL of you can’t see the ball (game changer) and the interest in tennis has faded just as quickly as it entered the nation’s psyche. The anticipation of waiting for the Premier League and Fantasy Football to start has begun to step up a gear.

I wake up this morning and I can’t move a muscle. It’s a good thing I slept with the phone on my chest, as I have less chance of reaching the bedside cabinet as Steve Bruce has of keeping Newcastle United up this season. The phone tells me I have been added to the 5-aside WhatsApp Group and there is talk of another game tonight (not a chance). I faintly remember them discussing this after the match last night, but I barely remember making it to the car I was so out of it. Thank God I bought an automatic as my legs were in no shape to change gears after that “knockabout”, more like knockout!   

I then realise I can’t scroll Twitter on my phone as neither of my thumbs will move. Then it all comes back to me. Yours truly forgot that in his heyday of the Bexley District League (Division B) he was a winger and couldn’t tackle for toffee (or the ball). Last night I went for last ditch challenge and ended up stumbling in slow motion towards the high steel fence. I should have let the old gut absorb the impact but instead I stuck out my hands, and the pair of them, like the rest of me is goosed. As I lay there unable to move I think back to the summer memories that came flooding back and a determination that this year my FPL season would definitely be different. That every lesson I have learnt over the past 13 years of playing fantasy football would be heeded. I begin to lie back (I have no choice) and reflect where it has gone all too wrong for me in seasons past. It is fair to say that Fantasy Football tinkering is well underway and lessons have been well and truly learned from previous years! …………. Haven’t They?   

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results” – Albert Einstein

(Patience)

With over two weeks to go before the start of the season, the majority of FPL managers have tinkered their way through a few drafts of their potential squads already. As FPL Towers initiated the game earlier than usual for the 2019/20 season, this may prove to psychologically hinder some managers rather than benefit them. The potential to lose sight of original thoughts and strategies through over tinkering is more than a slight possibility, as looking at numerous possibilities of various combinations, can distract managers from their intended original strategy.

If Gameweek One totals end up being lower than their expectations for some members of the FPL Community, I would be fairly confident that claims of “a season for casuals” will flood FPL Twitter. If the typical big hitters such as Aubameyang and Kane score hat tricks or braces, while the defences of Liverpool and Manchester City are breached, many FPL managers will go into meltdown and the temptation to return to safe default mode will be all too great for some. 

Reverting back to type results in making the same mistakes as season before and panicking. Although getting off to a good start should be vital to a successful FPL season, it is not crucial. If an FPL manager as spent a lot of time and effort during the previous pre-season weeks, tinkering their squad in the hope of maximising the potential output from their £100 million budget, then surely a couple of Gameweeks is too soon to completely abandon their squad. 

Patience is the first lesson I will try to enact upon this season. It is the key virtue I think FPL managers need to adopt, especially if they have a long term plan or at the very least have no intention of hitting their Wildcard around Gameweek 4. Patience is a quality that can affect many aspects of fantasy football, with squad selection obviously the main factor within FPL. There are obviously scenarios when unforeseen events take place and immediate actions need to be taken. These are few and far between. FPL managers picked their 15 players for a reason. Have faith in your gut or the statistical information you used. If you have fallen behind early on, then your philosophy may still prevail long term. 

“It gives me great pleasure indeed to see the stubbornness of an incorrigible nonconformist warmly acclaimed” – Albert Einstein

(Stubbornness) 

People often say that having the patience of a saint is an honourable quality to have. This can also be true in FPL, but my first lesson does come with a caveat. 

There will likely come a time when you have to admit that you called it wrong and a change is required. Whether your punt that you praised lyrically about pre-season has not come to fruition by Gameweek 8, or that player your friends raved about, but you didn’t rate, hit the ground running Gameweek One and shows no sign of abating.

The timing of this call is debatable but it is definitely there. It usually appears first in the cold dark recesses of your mind, which you wish and initially choose to ignore. How could you be wrong? You know your football, you have been playing FPL for years and you certainly know better than your friends and the masses. You have just been unlucky and will be proved right in the long term, you just need to stick it out. I am afraid to tell you that chances are you got this call wrong. Don’t dig your studs into the turf and refuse to move, it will be your undoing.

Trust me I know what I am talking about in this department. What I am about to tell you, will shock you and you may decide not to read any further as you come to the conclusion I know absolutely nothing about the funny old game. The season of 2015/16, Leicester City’s magnificent Premier League victory. I made the two worst decisions of my FPL career. The first was that I refused to follow the crowd and purchase Riyad Mahrez, even when it became apparent that he and Leicester City were not an early season fluke. I became an obstinate, headstrong, pig-headed, stubborn FPL manager, the worst kind of FPL player you can get. The second biggest mistake I ever made was finally purchasing him somewhere around Gameweek 30. I finally caved and brought him into my squad. The frustration got too much to me and although I knew I had well and truly missed the foxes shaped ocean liner, my season and head had gone. 

My thinking behind not purchasing Mahrez was that I would find an alternative player or collection of players that would beat his ever increasing tally. I couldn’t do it and didn’t see the point in bringing him in, as picking up the same points as the masses would not allow me to catch up. I also didn’t want to pay the price he had become, despite the fact he was still producing enough points that made him good value. I didn’t want to face the fact that I would have to pay more for Riyad than others and admit I had been wrong all season. 

“The value of a man should be seen in what he gives not what he is able to receive” – Albert Einstein

(Team Value)

As previously mentioned, one of the reasons why I didn’t purchase Mahrez was because he had become significantly more expensive than his starting price. I became obsessed with using more of my budget than I would of initially, if I purchased him earlier on. Team Value has always been important to me. 

The need to make a profit from transfers and sell a player before his price drops, has become a priority in case I need the extra funds in the future. Where these extra funds would come in useful would not be known until you use them. It would take at least a profit of 0.5 to purchase a player considered of higher value, where a drop of 0.1 of a current player in your squad is in effect a drop of 0.4, as you can only purchase a player who has dropped to a similar price or has originally valued 0.5 lower. 

I have come to the realisation that I have put considerably too much emphasis on Team Value. Every morning and night I would study FPL price check websites, to see which players were potentially rising or falling. Although price increases and decreases is an important factor, it could be argued that it is only a short term issue.

To capture these price alterations many FPL managers force themselves into making transfers a full week before the next set of fixtures. This tempts the hand of fate, risking the possibility of training ground injuries taking place, forcing players to make a decision whether to take a four point hit to resolve the matter or place the injured party on their bench.

Possibly my biggest transfer mistake was the sale of Matt Doherty after around Gameweek three last season. Despite my decision to place him in my first eleven due to pre-season analysis, I abandoned my summer preparation and sold him following no clean sheets and scoring an own goal. As mangers started to sell him, his value was about to fall. I ignored his attacking prowess and sold him to save my team value. The rest is history.

Did this and other shrewd accountancy techniques make a difference in the end? Was I able to increase the number of premium players in my squad? Yes, but not because of my timely transfers. Harry Kane picked up an injury late in the season and suddenly FPL managers had money to burn. The points I potentially lost due to early transfers could have resulted in a much improved final overall ranking.

While Team Value should be noted, I don’t think it should rule your decisions. At the very most, you might be able to improve your squad by one additional premium player later on in the season, but at what cost?

“Anger dwells only in the bosom of fools” – Albert Einstein

(Rage Transfers)

In an ideal world FPL would not let mangers undertake transfers until all the matches for that Gameweek are over. We have all done it, we have all been there, watching a Premier League match and promised ourselves that if a particular player doesn’t perform or give us some shred of payback for our loyalty, we are removing them from our squad. Another poor ninety minutes later and our free transfer for the following Gameweek has been spent. 

This also works when a big hitter we don’t own produces a double digit haul. We are perplexed we are not the incumbents of these points, while owners of these Gameweek Gods frequently tweet their managerial prowess for the next seven days.

I am sure people will be able to give examples of when a “Rage Transfer” has proved successful, but surely this is just a transfer that an FPL player undertook a week before they should have and got away with no alternative serious issues or injuries to address, during the following week. I have heard and seen considerable accounts of transfers made in a fit of anger or under the influence on a Saturday night down the pub, only for the erratic action to evolve into a more detrimental outcome, than simply waiting a few days and taking stock of the situation.

My own recent experience of this involves Harry Kane on the 10th March 2017. I brought him in as Agureo blanked against Stoke on a Wednesday night. It was a Friday night and I had enough of missing out on points hauls from Tottenham’s star striker. I am in my local, a few pints of Guinness down my Ruud Gullit and I find myself staring at Sergio and his 2pts against Stoke, with Liverpool coming up next. A fourth pint of the black stuff down and my transfer is complete. I wake up Saturday only to remember Spurs have an FA Quarter Final Cup tie with Millwall. I am at Gowran Park Racecourse on Saturday and have a very profitable day, I don’t remember the night but I remember the first thing I hear on Sunday morning. I wake up, hit he radio “and Harry Kane suffered what looks to be a reoccurrence of his previous ankle injury, only minutes into their FA Cup quarter-final against Millwall”.  

I deserved what I got. You could say I was unlucky, I would say it was stupid and with all my years of experience of playing FPL I should have and do know better. It is hard when the red mist descends not to react, perhaps set a rule for yourself. No transfers until all pre-match press conferences are over or unless you feel you absolutely have no alternative. There is never a positive outcome from losing your cool in FPL, your team will undoubtedly suffer for it. 

“Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.” – Albert Einstein

(Chips and Double Gameweeks)

When FPL Towers introduced the use of chips, it brought an extra dimension to the game. A section of the FPL Community complained that they would assist the more casual FPL manager, while strengthening the element of luck. Landing the right week to triple captain a player or using your Bench Boost chip, could send your overall ranking and mini league standing into the upper echelons of FPL greatness. 

They are chips that from Christmas have players conversing on when Double Gameweeks are likely to take place and which teams look likely to be participating. The permutations are calculated and discussions begin when would be the most rewarding time to use these three jewels. 

More often than not the three chips are not the salvation or bonus they are intended to be. Most FPL mangers save their chips for Double Gameweeks, using the logic that players will have two games within a single Gameweek hence capitalise on potential big scores. In reality this is rarely the case. 

Double Gameweeks are towards the end of the season, the premium players and their respective teams are usually still in a European competition, are in the hunt for the Premier League and possibly the FA Cup. There is also the likely possibility that at least one of the fixtures is especially favourable, if not both. All of this culminates in squad rotation, with many usual captain choices not starting both matches. The weeks of tweaking squads or saving a Wildcard in earnest of a Double Gameweek often result in being futile. 

In hindsight are strategic transfers weeks before, for players from clubs taking place in these close run of fixtures worth it, instead of players with more favourable single fixtures leading up to these eagerly anticipated weeks? For the first time, I will not be chasing these players, especially to the degree of previous years. FPL Managers are seen debating how to get eleven or even a full squad of Double Gameweek footballers. Do they ever count the cost of achieving such a goal and the points lost in doing so?

The captain choice for these periods in FPL are obviously fixture based. Experience tells that rotation safe defenders could well be the direction to go this year, as two clean sheets with potential bonuses should be considered a successful outlay for any FPL manager. There is also no problem with using your Triple Captain Chip early in the season, if a premium forward is at home to a team seeming struggling defensively. Who can forget Sergio Aguero’s four goal haul at home to Leicester City in February 2018 or his hat-trick against Huddersfield in August last season.

“Rejoice with your family and the beautiful land of life” – Albert Einstein

(Conclusion)

The majority of these topics intertwine with each other. I suppose they all revolve around the biggest mistake FPL managers seem to make and that is losing patience. I need to learn this lesson just as much as any player of the game, it also wouldn’t do any harm to introduce this life skill into the world outside of fantasy football. 

It is important to remember and frequently remind ourselves that there is a life outside of FPL. It is easy to forget and let a poor Gameweek ruin our weekend and spoil time with our loved ones. I am not expecting players who take FPL seriously not to get frustrated and I wouldn’t say anything as patronising such as “it’s only a game”. The FPL Community is full of players who spend a great deal of time studying statistics and algorithms to find an edge, listening to Podcasts and spending money on memberships to dedicated FPL websites. In the past I have certainly fallen into this category and upon reflection let FPL distract me too much from more important aspects of my life.

I would like to think we all take part for the pure enjoyment and the challenge between friends and the rest of the FPL Community. After all the pre-season preparation I may find myself having a poor start to the campaign. As frustrating as that would be, I hope I would be able to put it into perspective and treat FPL as it is intended!

FPL Rubber Ducky comes back with another more in-depth look at the theory of FPL

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