So, we’re left pondering the question; is it worth the punt? I’ve spent some time looking back to see if there’s been any luck with Championship punts in previous seasons.

Last season, the Championship top scorer from the 17/18 season was Matej Vydra, who signed for Burnley from Derby County. He scored 21 goals that season but only managed 1 goal in 13 games in his first taste of Premier League football. Yikes. Then we have another high scoring player that season in Diogo Jota, who is much favoured this season in FPL. In the 2017/18 Championship season, he managed 17 goals. Last year, he bagged 9 goals in 33 games, which some would argue is not the worst return for your debut season in the PL. It’s worth keeping in mind Jota was party of a flourishing Wolves side, which many FPL managers took advantage of, favouring Doherty and Jiminez.

In the 2016/17 Championship season, we saw an abnormal amount of goals and quality strikers come through promoted sides or through incoming transfers. Chris Wood was the top scorer that year with an impressive 27 goals.

This bagged him his big Premier League move to Burnley for the 2017/18 season. He played 24 games and managed 10 goals. Again, not amazing but it’s steady, as long as you rotated your bench correctly and didn’t leave him out during those irregular hauls. Tammy Abraham almost moved to Newcastle as a result of his sterling form for Bristol City, where he scored 23 goals. He ended up moving to Swansea on loan, playing 31 times in a torrid season for the Swans. Abraham struggled to find form and only managed 5 goals in his loan spell.

Not worthy of any FPL recognition. Dwight Gayle was another prolific striker, who scored 23 goals in that Championship season. Gayle, who is renowned nowadays for his prolificacy in The Championship, struggled to maintain any form in Newcastle’s developing Premier League side and could only manage 6 goals in 35 games. Sickening if you put faith in him that year in FPL. Another striker with 23 goals that year in The Championship was Glen Murray. The veteran striker managed 12 goals in 25 games, a diamond in the rough in terms of promoted strikers that year.

In the 2015/16 Championship season, we saw the same trend. Andre Gray led the scoring charts with 25 goals. He then led the line for then promoted Burnley and scored 9 goals that year. Can you see the trend yet? Abel Hernandez also shone for Hull City that year, scoring 20 Championship goals but only hit the back of the net 4 times the following season in the PL. Sam Vokes is the best example of a player showing consistency when adjusting to the Premier League. He scored 15 goals in 15/16 and 10 in the 16/17 PL season. You definitely wouldn’t have to deal with the bitter disappointment like those who took a punt on Vydra last season or Hernandez in 2016/17. 

Ultimately, even if you go further back in history, you see similar trends. Only Odion Ighalo proved to be the best gamble, in 2015/16. It’s clear, maybe even before reading this long winded article for many, that if you choose to gamble on a recently promoted striker, you do so knowing that there’s no guarantee of returns. Looking back at history, you should be very grateful with a double-digit goal tally and some bonus points but not too surprised if your quirky, stat-backed gamble goes horribly wrong, leaving you sat there in gameweek 10 hovering over the “transfer out” button. 

In my opinion, the reason the game is so exciting is because of the gambles, the risks and the research. And I will be taking a punt on Che Adams. Here’s hoping I’m one of the first on the bandwagon.

Written by Matthew Milton – @LeafySeaDragon_

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