Before we get to the lists, let’s start off with a bit of methodology explaining where the ratings come from and what they mean (side note: if you want to see the full spreadsheet, you can access it at https://tinyurl.com/MilesOffsideFPLAlgorithm).

When I was deciding what factors should go into making a good FPL pick, two things jumped out as most important: you want someone who gets a lot of points while also not eating up your entire budget. Moreover, I didn’t want the algorithm to miss out on any excellent players who might be a good pick but whose overall points total was low because of missing time through injuries or because they were a January signing. I decided to account for that problem by adjusting for total minutes played, using a “per 90” metric instead of “per game” to account for substitute appearances as being different from starts. Put all of those things into a formula and you get:

Player Rating = Total PointsMinutes Played* 90* Total PointsCost

With that pesky math stuff out of the way, let’s go right to the rankings!

Goalkeepers and Defenders

Two things jump out at me from looking at the tables above. The first is that FPL really crushed it with setting the prices this year, and it’s going to be hard to find good value players. The second is that despite being expensive, Liverpool and City players are worth the money. That’s especially true of Robertson, TAA, and VVD, who not only top the defender rankings but are actually the only players in the entire system to rate above 150. They are far and above the best players to have according to the algorithm, so it’s a very strong case for doubling up your Liverpool defense.

Midfielders and Strikers

A few things jump out from the tables above. First, the prices are a lot more varied in these lists, which means that there’s definitely value to be had to free up funds elsewhere if you are a bit strategic with your choices. Second is that strikers don’t rate particularly highly according to the algorithm, probably because they tend to be overpriced, so focus your spending in midfield and defense. There’s a very strong case here for a budget front three so you can double up on Salah and Sterling, who are far and away the best picks from the bunch. For example, a front three of Jimenez, Wilson, and Deulofeu paired with some big hitters in midfield is arguably better than having Aubameyang or Aguero. Finally, do yourself a favor and don’t pick Kane.

Hopefully you found this article to be helpful, and don’t forget to find the Miles Offside Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, Google Play, Stitcher, or wherever else you get your podcasts. Good luck this season!

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